After taking the $7,500 federal tax credit, below are 5 hypothetical cost comparisons between the Nissan Leaf and the Nissan Juke (feel free to conduct your own experiments / change the assumptions using this spreadsheet). Maintenance costs per mile and battery replacement costs are kept constant in my 5 comparisons — see the spreadsheet for assumptions.
Comparison #1 Assumptions:
Nissan Leaf is cheaper after just over 1 year of ownership. Save almost $7,000 after 5 years of ownership.
Comparison #2 Assumptions:
Nissan Leaf is cheaper within 1st year of ownership (and ever after). Save almost $10,000 after 5 years of ownership.
Comparison #3 Assumptions:
Nissan Leaf is much cheaper within 1st year of ownership (and ever after). Save over $10,000 after 5 years of ownership.
Comparison #4 Assumptions:
Nissan Leaf is cheaper within 1st year of ownership (and ever after). Save over $7,000 after 5 years of ownership.
Comparison #5 Assumptions:
Nissan Leaf is cheaper within 1st year of ownership (and ever after). Save nearly $5,000 after 5 years of ownership.
Previous comparisons can be viewed here:
If you’re going to list the problems of foriegn oil as a part of the pros of electric, you should probably add “The reliance upon Chinese Lithium supplies to produce batteries, putting us in the hands of a nation which doesn’t play fair and doesn’t like us.” to the cons of electrics. Most of the world’s known Lithium is in China.
Wrong fish Mako. http://www.icis.com/Articles/2009/11/02/9258538/bolivias-lithium-is-not-as-important-as-the-country-wants-you-to-think.html Chile provides 61% of lithium exports to the US, with Argentina providing
36%, says the US Geological Survey (USGS), with Chile having estimated reserves
of 3m tonnes, and Argentina about 400,000 tonnes. Bolivia’s reserves, however,
are projected at about 5.4m tonnes. The Andean areas between Bolivia, Argentina
and Chile are referred to as the Lithium Triangle. At the 2009 Lithium Supply & Markets conference, held in Santiago,
Chile, in January, global lithium reserves and resources were estimated at
nearly 30m tonnes, with 7.6m tonnes from mining, and 17.6m in continental
brines. Other lithium producing countries include Brazil, Canada, China,
Finland, Portugal, Serbia, the US (in Nevada) and Zimbabwe.
Zachary Nice work. Your inflation assumpionts for gasoline over the next ten years? Are you using $4/gal avg for the whole ten years? thirteen years? Gas inflation has been 7% CAGR the last ten years. This would make gasoline $8/gallon by 2024 or year 11 of your projections. I’m looking for the ‘spreadsheet’ you reference. Where is the link to it? Thanks.
tbh, i kept it very simple. could use a changing figure for each year, but I just use different figures ($3.5/$4/$4.5) for all years. in any case you use, the overall assumption is going to be highly uncertain, since we don’t really know what will happen with the price of gas. while we could use 7% CAGR, there’s the question as to how high the price can go before it stifles demand so much that it’s worth more for corporations to eat more of their profits than raise the price. of course, if i’m wrong, happy to be corrected and supplied with better assumptions. spreadsheet is linked in the article, but i just added it to the top to be easier to find, and it’s here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsDzwXJeEr1pdDVxT245YWlMLXBPWFF2enB4NjFEeHc#gid=1
it’s an increasingly hyped myth. lithium is really not the issue some people are making it out to be. but as the myth is still young(ish), the rebuttals are few and far between.
>>and 17.6m in continental brines Hmm. Would you happen to know what they mean by this? Distributed through the ocean? Would that even be usable?
This analysis ignores battery wear and tear. Because pack replacement prices have not been disclosed by Nissan, an accurate calculation of the total cost of ownership is not possible. It would be a more fair comparison to assume that the LEAF and the Juke were leased, since this implicitly factors in the entire cost of ownership.
the projected cost of a battery pack in 2021 (from the DOE) is what i added in after 8 years (given 8-yr warranties). no one knows what the actual cost will be then, but i trust the DOE as much as anyone on this topic. anyway, it doesn’t really matter, since the Leaf is cheaper long before the battery warranty expires.
Zach, thanks for clarifying that. The 8-year warranty is a limited warranty, which does not cover battery capacity. When you look at the new warranty coverage announced last December, 70% of the original capacity are guaranteed for 5 years and 60K miles. While some owners will do better than others, I would take that as a baseline assumption for battery replacement timeframe. There were a few owners clamoring for pack replacements after just two years. While this might not be the norm, I would take care not to include too many assumptions in the calculation. If you asked me the same question two years ago, I would have enthusiastically endorsed your article. I learned to be a bit more cautious with my projections. While your data is more realistic than I thought, I would still advise to compare vehicle leases. This will take the question of battery longevity and replacement cost is completely out of the picture. Why guess when there is no need to? I’m sure that the LEAF will come out ahead in that comparison also, and you will steer clear of assumptions, which could turn out wrong.
Thanks! Yes, I just read and wrote yesterday that the new UK Nissan Leaf battery warranty covers capacity loss*. I did not realize that wasn’t the case previously. Ugh. Overall, though, yes, comparing leases sounds like a much better idea. I’ve never been drawn to leasing, so I didn’t really pay it much attention up until recently, but it seems like a very good option for EVs. * https://evobsession.com/nissan-leaf-battery-can-now-be-leased-in-uk-100-improvements-made-to-car/
Yes, indeed! Leasing is a new paradigm for many of us. Although I argued against it couple of years ago, I really believe that it’s the way to go. I don’t know much about other countries, but in the US, federal and state EV subsidies help take the edge of the initial depreciation, and make leasing quite affordable.
and with the way that EV (esp. battery) technology is advancing, i’d feel more comfortable going with a lease now and waiting a few years to see where things settle. personally, if i’m in the market for a car again within the coming few years, think i’d give it a shot. at the moment, though, i basically have 0 need for a car.
Автопроизводители научились делать автомобили, которые получают пять звезд при стандартных краш-тестах. А что будет, если правила немного изменить?
В США прошли краш-тесты сразу 12 автомобилей. Причем их тестировали по методике Американского института дорожной безопасности (IIHS), которая предусматривает удар на скорости 64 км/ч о барьер с 25% перекрытием. Причем барьер в данном случае не сминается. Эксперты признают – условия теста очень жесткие, но таким образом происходит имитация столкновения с деревом или столбом.
И оказалось, что далеко не все автомобили, которые отлично сдавали экзамен при стандартном краш-тесте с 50% сминаемым перекрытием, справились с таким испытанием.
Так, модели Mazda 5, электрокар Nissan Leaf, Nissan Juke и Fiat 500L провалили краш-тест. По словам экспертов, в этих машинах при ударе о столб шансы погибнуть или получить серьезные травмы очень высоки.
Главная проблема заключается в том, что при ударе с 25% перекрытием препятствие фактически срезает всю переднюю часть машины и наносит разрушительный удар по левой передней стойке. Увы, но на многих машинах (особенно компактных) она не выдерживает. И последствия этого вы можете увидеть на видео ниже.
Пожалуй, единственной компактной моделью, которая с успехом справилась с новым американским краш-тестом, стал Mini Countryman. Хотя эксперты отметили и очень приличные результаты электрокара Chevrolet Volt, которому лишь чуть-чуть не хватило до отличной отметки.
Результаты краш-теста по методике IIHS с 25% перекрытием:
Удовлетворительно: Chevrolet Volt, Ford C-Max Hybrid, Mitsubishi Lancer, Scion FR-S, Subaru BRZ
Плохо: Hyundai Veloster, Scion xB
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